Evaluation of the Second Homes and Affordability Pilot in Wales
Housing affordability in Wales has become a growing concern in recent years, driven by reduced housing supply and rising house prices. This issue is further complicated by the presence of second homes, empty properties, and short-term lets, which, while benefitting local economies, can disrupt community cohesion, strain services, and threaten Welsh as a community language.
In response, the Welsh Government launched initiatives aimed at improving housing affordability, including the Second Homes and Affordability Pilot in the Dwyfor area of Gwynedd in June 2022. This Pilot aims to test strategies for managing future numbers of second homes, empty properties, and short-term lets, improving housing affordability, and supporting local communities. The Welsh Government commissioned Alma Economics and OB3 Research to evaluate the Pilot, running from August 2023 to December 2026. The evaluation comprises three phases: Phase 1 (scoping and exploratory research), Phase 2 (process evaluation), and Phase 3 (impact and economic evaluation).
Phase 1, completed in October 2024, focused on refining the Pilot’s scope and priorities while deepening understanding of the broader policy landscape. Key activities included a review of existing research, stakeholder engagement through interviews, focus groups, and surveys, the development of a Theory of Change (ToC) model, data mapping, and the creation of a feasibility plan to guide the Pilot’s future evaluation.
The findings from Phase 1 provided valuable insights into the Pilot’s early progress. Interviews with 16 key stakeholders, including Pilot delivery partners and Welsh Government representatives, highlighted the importance of initiatives such as Homebuy - Wales and the Empty Homes Grant. These programmes were seen as effective in addressing some housing issues, while other schemes, like Self Build Wales and a deposit support plan, generated enthusiasm but raised some practical concerns. Interviewees also pointed to the need for strong collaboration between Cyngor Gwynedd, housing associations, and the Pilot team to foster community-led housing projects. There was optimism about the potential of Article 4, a measure aimed at stabilising the housing market, although it was recognised that it could present risks for local residents. Additionally, the council tax premium was highlighted as a key funding mechanism within the Pilot, while some participants felt the planned visitor levy would come too late to have an immediate impact.
Exploratory research conducted through surveys, interviews, and focus groups suggested that many young people, affordable housing applicants, and local community members felt that housing in Dwyfor was unaffordable. The presence of second homes and holiday lets was widely seen as having a negative impact on community life, the Welsh language, and housing availability. However, there was also recognition that these properties play a role in supporting local employment through tourism. Awareness of the Pilot’s activities varied among the different groups, with the council tax premium, Article 4, and support through Tai Teg being the most recognised measures.
Despite these early insights, data gaps remain, particularly with regard to community-level information. The evaluation team noted challenges in accessing detailed housing data, especially around earnings and housing stock, which are crucial for assessing affordability. These gaps point to the need for better, more frequent data collection to accurately track the success of the Pilot and to support similar interventions in the future.
Looking ahead, Phase 2 will involve a process evaluation, which will focus on refining stakeholder engagement strategies, further gathering qualitative insights, and developing case studies on specific interventions. These efforts will help evaluate what works well, what doesn’t, and why, providing a clearer understanding of the Pilot’s impact on Dwyfor’s housing landscape.
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