Independent Review of Children’s Social Care

Alma Economics was commissioned by the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care to provide economic analysis to support the Review team to reform children’s social care (CSC) in England.

In the first phase of the project, we estimated the annual expenditure on CSC and the cost of adverse outcomes for children in need (CIN). To estimate the annual expenditure on CSC, we collated data on expenditure on services provided by local authorities to CIN as well as preventative services provided to the wider population. We used regression coefficients from the literature that account for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics to calculate the increased probability of children in need experiencing adverse outcomes. The adverse outcomes considered include educational outcomes, labour market outcomes, mental and physical health, criminal behaviour, and homelessness. The social cost of the adverse outcomes was estimated by exploring the impact of these outcomes on wellbeing, productivity losses, and expenditure on public services. 

In the second phase of the project, we estimated the cost and impact on society of the policy recommendations developed by the Review team. We developed a comprehensive set of models estimating the impact of each recommendation on public finances and produced a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis reflecting costs and benefits to society. We designed our models in a flexible manner to allow us to test the impact of different policy parameters and states of the world to inform the work of the Review.

Read more about our work here.

➥ Paying the Price

➥ The independent review of children’s social care – final report

➥ Costing and outline CBA of the  Independent Review of Children’s  Social Care recommendations: Modelling assumptions

For more details and press coverage, visit our blog post.

Analysis of Rapid Reviews on serious incidents involving children in England

Our team reviewed the multiagency review reports submitted to the Child Safeguarding Practice Review Panel by local Safeguarding Partnerships between January 2021 and January 2022. Widely known as Rapid Reviews, these reports are the outcome of multiagency meetings held at the local level following any serious child safeguarding incident.

Extracting quantitative and qualitative data from the Rapid Reviews, and further examining them through a dual process of coding and human-eye review, our team provided a multi-layered analysis of key factors known to affect the course of serious child safeguarding incidents. These factors included child demographics, categories of death and serious harm, parent/family characteristics and circumstances affecting the household, child characteristics and vulnerabilities, and service involvement with the children and/or their families. The interplay of different factors was also analysed to highlight cumulative risks and overarching vulnerabilities.  

Alongside this analysis, the annual review submitted to the Panel discussed the quality of the Rapid Reviews, with a focus on examples of good practice and areas requiring improvement. These can be taken forward by local Safeguarding Partnerships to strengthen their Rapid Reviews and streamline processes for the safeguarding of children.

➥ Findings from our work have been included in the Child Safeguarding Practice Review Panel’s Annual Report 2021, which can be found here.

The cost of inaction in the children’s social care sector

Alma Economics was commissioned by Action for Children, Barnardo’s, The Children’s Society, the National Children’s Bureau, and the NSPCC to compare the costs and benefits of the government’s Stable Homes, Built on Love Strategy for reform of children’s social care with recommendations made by the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care (the “Care Review”).

Our team first conducted a review of the government’s actions and policy commitments for children’s social care in England following the completion of the Care Review. We incorporated the identified changes into a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) model we had developed during earlier work for the Care Review. We estimated the cost of delayed or limited action for all recommendations mentioned in the government’s strategy across two key policy scenarios: (i) delayed implementation, where the government implements the Care Review’s recommendations from 2025/26 onwards; and (ii) no further action, under which the government takes no further action after two years of the Stable Homes, Built on Love strategy (business-as-usual).

The outcome of this project was a comprehensive presentation that highlighted key figures, including (i) the cost of delay in fully implementing reforms per year and over the next 10 years; (ii) the number of children looked after that would have avoided care under full implementation of the Care Review’s recommendations; and (iii) the average cost to society over several time intervals. Our research has contributed significantly to the charities’ efforts to secure the necessary government investment in children’s services.

Our work received extensive press coverage including this report from Channel 4 News.

Process evaluation of the phased expansion of Flying Start — Welsh Government

We were commissioned by the Welsh Government to conduct a process evaluation of the expansion of the Flying Start programme, which seeks to provide vital support to children and their families in disadvantaged areas.

Initially launched in 2006, Flying Start is designed to assist families through four key elements: the provision of part-time high-quality childcare for 2 to 3-year-olds, enhanced health visits, parenting support, and language development support.

Following the 2021 Programme for Government, the Welsh Government committed to delivering a phased expansion of Flying Start with a particular emphasis on services provided in Welsh. The expansion consists of two phases, with Flying Start services offered in new geographical areas across all local authorities in Wales.

Areas eligible for Phase 1 of the expansion started receiving all four components of Flying Start from September 2022 onwards, with the goal of reaching an additional 2,500 children. Phase 2 consisted of the expansion of the childcare component of Flying Start beginning in April 2023, with a target of an additional 9,500 offers made to children.

Alma Economics was tasked with conducting a process evaluation of this expansion to understand the successes and challenges faced by stakeholders. Our comprehensive assessment included document reviews, stakeholder interviews, and detailed data analysis. We also developed five case studies highlighting specific examples of challenges and strategies to overcome them.

Our resulting recommendations aim to refine the approach and ensure the continued success of the Flying Start expansion, helping to secure the best possible start in life for children in Wales.

➥ Read more about our findings here.

➥ Find the full report here.

Mapping the childcare and play workforce in Wales — Welsh Government

Alma Economics was commissioned by the Welsh Government to map the childcare and playwork workforce in Wales. This research aimed to understand the current and future composition of the sector's workforce and involved three main components: analysing current data on the workforce, projecting future workforce needs based on anticipated changes in demand and policy, and engaging with workforce members through a survey, interviews, and focus groups to gather their experiences.

A mixed-methods approach was used, combining analysis of existing data with primary data collected through stakeholder engagement. The project was divided into two phases:

Phase 1: Scoping Research and Data Analysis

This phase began with scoping interviews with Welsh Government officials and other stakeholders to gather contextual understanding and material. Then, a comprehensive desk-based review of the sector was conducted, covering capacity, service provision, and emerging challenges and opportunities. All identified data sources were thoroughly analysed to develop a quantitative description of the childcare and play workforce, accompanied by a gap analysis against key research questions.

Phase 2: Primary Research and Model Development

This phase included conducting a survey, stakeholder interviews, and focus groups to gather detailed information on the workforce's characteristics. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with setting managers, childcare practitioners, playworkers, and childminders across Wales who provided qualitative data on their experiences working in the sector, their qualifications, as well as challenges and opportunities.

The work resulted in a detailed report to help policymakers understand the current workforce composition and projected changes in demand. Our work thus identified opportunities and barriers to meeting the Welsh Government’s ambition to provide good-quality early childhood play, learning, and care to all children in Wales.

➥ Read our full report here.

Youth Social Action: Rapid Evidence Assessment — Department for Culture, Media and Sport

What makes young people participate in social action and what benefits do they get from it? Alma Economics was commissioned by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) to conduct a Rapid Evidence Assessment to answer these questions.

We wanted to ensure that our search covered as many studies as possible to answer these questions thoroughly. We used keywords to find relevant academic papers as well as evidence from organisations that are involved hands-on with youth social action. As expected, we found a very large number of papers which we then shortlisted to include the most relevant studies in a systematic way, using clearly defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. We ended up with the most relevant and recent international and UK-based evidence.

Volunteering pushes young people to develop empathy and confidence, become more civically engaged, and build a stronger sense of belonging to their communities. However, there are many inequalities that prevent young people from reaping these benefits, and greater attention should be paid to the inclusivity of social action programmes to ensure that they reach all young people. The internet and social media can help with this, as they push more young people to volunteer and allow them to contribute to issues that are important to them.

➥ The full report can be found here.

➥ Our Evidence Map can be found here.

Eliminating profit from the care of looked after children: Delphi study — Welsh Government

In 2024, the Welsh Government introduced the Health and Social Care (Wales) Bill to address the impacts of for-profit children’s residential and foster care provision. This came as a result of the (then) cooperation agreement between the Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru, which included a commitment to eliminate profit from the care of looked-after children due to concerns about the impact of profit-driven motives on service provision and outcomes.

Our team was commissioned by the Welsh Government to explore the potential benefits and adverse consequences associated with eliminating private profit from the care of looked-after children in Wales. We designed and carried out a Delphi study to gather expert views and assess the extent to which eliminating private profit from the care of looked-after children would impact the care these children receive and their subsequent outcomes.

We used a structured process of two questionnaires and focus group discussions with experts. The first questionnaire gathered diverse opinions on each area of enquiry. These included the potential impacts of the commitment and how wellbeing outcomes for children and young people may be affected as part of the wider transformation of children’s social care. In the second questionnaire, experts were invited to review and rate their agreement with a series of statements that outlined the most significant impacts and strategies identified from the first questionnaire.

Focus group discussions were then held to rank areas of consensus and explore areas where consensus was not achieved. This process enabled the identification of the most crucial impacts and suggestions, forming the foundation for an evidence-based and consensus-derived set of best practices. This will help inform decision-making on eliminating profit from the care of looked-after children.

➥ Our report is available here.

Supporting children and young people with their mental health and emotional wellbeing — Local Government Association

Alma Economics was commissioned by the Local Government Association (LGA) to carry out research for a series of case studies identifying examples of good practice in supporting young people’s transition from Children and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) to Adult Mental Health Services (AMHS) or to community-based services in England.

We carried out a number of semi-structured interviews with councils across England as well as with young people who have experienced the transition. Our work focused, in particular, on good practice raised by the councils as well as the feedback young people gave on the services they received, and further sought to record young people’s own recommendations for children’s and adults’ mental health services in England.

The report brings together overarching suggestions and recurring themes, acting as a valuable resource for councils that wish to restructure their mental health services for young people during their transition period.

Read the full report:

➥ Supporting children and young people with their mental health and emotional wellbeing

UK public spending on babies, children, and young people

How much should the UK be spending to support its youngest generations?

Alma Economics was commissioned by a coalition of five of the UK’s leading children’s charities (Action for Children, Barnardo’s, the National Children’s Bureau, the NSPCC and The Children’s Society) to research public spending on babies, children, and young people in the UK. We sought to determine relevant spending levels as a percentage of the country’s GDP, and how this compares to other OECD countries.

We first conducted a review of UK and international literature on different methods of measuring spending on children. After deciding on our approach, we collated publicly available data on each of the key areas of expenditure – namely welfare, education, social care, and health.

Our analysis suggests that UK total spending on babies, children, and young people amounted to £191.1 billion or 8.57% of UK GDP in 2022-23. This is significantly less than the proportion of GDP spent by leading OECD counterparts.

By looking at spending in other OECD countries, we then explored benchmarks in different policy areas to suggest targets for UK spending. Our results indicate that the UK falls below the selected benchmarks in each policy area as well as in total.

Finally, we offered indicative evidence on the fiscal and social returns to spending on children in health, education, social care, and welfare.

This research informed a joint report published today by the charities calling for the next UK Government to put babies, children and young people at the heart of policymaking backed by a step-change in investment.

➥ The joint report, as well as the report produced Alma Economics, are both available here.

Inequalities, vulnerabilities, and risk factors for gambling harms among children and young people — GambleAware

A 2018 Gambling Commission report found that 55,000 children and young people in Great Britain, between the ages of 11 and 16, can be classed as having problems with gambling, with an additional 70,000 individuals in this age group being at risk of developing a gambling problem.

In response to statistics such as these and growing research in the area, GambleAware commissioned Alma Economics to investigate the inequalities, vulnerabilities, and risk factors surrounding children and young people’s experience of gambling-related harms.

We utilised a Rapid Evidence Assessment methodology to review the evidence base. Our resulting report and evidence map provide a comprehensive overview of the evidence base, gaps, and areas for future research.

➥ Read our report here.

➥ Explore our evidence map here.

Operational research on the delivery of the EU Child Guarantee pilot in Greece — UNICEF

Over the past 3 years, Greece was one of the four EU countries (alongside Bulgaria, Croatia and Italy) that introduced innovative models of services to transform child protection as part of the EU Child Guarantee pilot scheme. The Child Guarantee, launched in the EU in 2019, aspires to tackle child poverty and social exclusion through providing free access to education, healthcare and childcare, and ensuring decent housing and adequate nutrition.

Commissioned by the UNICEF Office of Research – Innocenti, Alma Economics researchers in Athens conducted extensive operational research into the implementation of the pilot’s key innovative models. For Greece, these included:

1. Supporting deinstitutionalisation and community-based care,

2. Strengthening the foster care system,

3. Introducing supported independent living,

4. Investing in life skills and job readiness for vulnerable youth, and

5. Strengthening inclusive education.

We talked to implementing partners, frontline and administrative staff of statutory organisations, as well as other programme and government officials about their experiences from the different stages of the pilot and how well these address child poverty and social exclusion in the country. In our interviews, we touched on different stages of the pilot for the interventions organised under each model, from preparation and planning to implementation and participation, and further discussed the sustainability and scalability of models going forward.

UNICEF has now published its synthesis report compiling research findings from all four pilot countries. We are very happy to see included in the report the important lessons learned from the Greek pilot which can contribute to the future expansion of the Child Guarantee across the EU.

➥ You can read the UNICEF synthesis report here.

Measuring Vulnerability — The Children’s Commissioner for England

Alma Economics was commissioned by the Children’s Commissioner for England to conduct a comprehensive assessment of all available data on vulnerable children.

We contributed to the development of an analytical framework and helped identify a preliminary set of groups of vulnerable children by exploring definitions and available data publications. We then collected, summarised and analysed publicly available data across all identified groups, creating the first and most complete dataset of children's vulnerabilities in England. To add to the original analysis, we collated trends over time and explored, using statistical methods, how certain vulnerabilities can overlap.

To ensure the information we identified was comprehensive and accurate, we sought guidance from analysts in government departments and other public bodies including the Department for Education, Public Health England, and Ofsted, as well as from non-governmental organisations such as the Education Policy Institute and the Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion.

Our work has helped guide the development of the Children’s Commissioner’s agenda by identifying unmet needs, emerging trends, and research gaps. Our team continued collaborating with the Children’s Commissioner for England for several years after the original project, updating the data collected and producing bespoke analyses.

Relevant reports:

➥ Children’s Commissioner’s annual study of childhood vulnerability in England (2018)

➥ Measuring aggregate vulnerability in childhood (July 2018)

➥ Estimating the number of vulnerable children – Totals (July 2017)

➥ Estimating the number of vulnerable children – 29 groups (July 2017)

➥ Infographic: overview of vulnerability (July 2017)

➥ Estimating the number of vulnerable infants (May 2018)

Situation analysis of children and women in Afghanistan — UNICEF

In the months prior to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, Alma Economics worked with UNICEF to conduct the 2021 Situation Analysis of Children and Women in Afghanistan. Our work focussed on providing an up-to-date, comprehensive analysis of the realisation of children's and women’s rights in the country.

Using in-depth data analysis, interviews with key Afghan stakeholders, and desk-based research, the report provides an evaluation of the realisation of children's and women’s rights against a wide range of international conventions, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Convention on the Rights of the Child. It also includes recommendations across five dimensions: health and nutrition, education, protection from violence and exploitation, access to a secure and healthy environment, and the provision of resources that ensure a fair chance in life.

The Situation Analysis will inform the development of UNICEF’s Country Programme (2022-2025) and is expected to add value to the decision making of the wider audience relevant to the realisation of children’s rights, including development partners, civil society and private sector actors.

➥ Read the report here.

Implementing Barnahus in Latvia: Cost-benefit analysis — OECD

The handling of cases where children have been exposed to violence or abuse requires an integrated approach. The Barnahus model aims to achieve this by bringing together various services under one roof to support children effectively and avoid their re-traumatisation.

Alma Economics was commissioned by the OECD to carry out a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of introducing the Barnahus model in Latvia. Our methodology was informed by a thorough evidence review which identified the impact of programmes similar to the Barnahus model. Additionally, we conducted interviews with sector experts to better understand the services currently received by child victims of, or witnesses to, violence and abuse, and supported a data collection exercise to fill in data gaps required to develop the CBA model.

Our team estimated the costs and benefits of the Barnahus model under different scenarios, concluding that it would generate higher benefits compared to its costs if it operated over the long-term (our model assumes 20 years of operation).

Our research findings are summarised in an OECD report which discusses the support required to establish the Barnahus model with the aim of ensuring multi-disciplinary and inter-institutional cooperation for child victims of violence, and improving the protection of children's rights.

Data analysis and forecasting for the UK adoption sector — Consortium of Voluntary Adoption Agencies

The Consortium of Voluntary Adoption Agencies (CVAA) commissioned Alma Economics to undertake a three-part study for the publication of the Adoption Leadership Board quarterly data reports.

We initially assessed the credibility of data returns from local authorities (LA’s) and Voluntary Adoption Agencies related to children waiting to be adopted and prospective adoptive parents. This allowed us to produce two cleaned, complex datasets that could be used for analysis.

For the second part of the project, we summarised the data returns for Special Guardianship Orders (SGO’s) from LA’s in England and produced LA-level, regional and national SGO statistics as well as analysis highlighting key population and regional characteristics.

We also analysed the information collected by the CVAA on adoptions, children’s characteristics, adopters’ characteristics and timings through the adoption process to understand the trends and characteristics of the sector and produce conclusions with policy implications. We studied how inter-agency placements vary over time and across different children’s characteristics. Finally, we created a forecasting framework that could be used in the future to predict the gap between children waiting to be adopted and prospective parents on a quarterly basis.

Children’s Social Care Nationwide Sufficiency Statement — Local Government Association

Alma Economics was commissioned by the Local Government Association (LGA) to develop a nationwide framework for sufficiency statements. Sufficiency statements are a key tool used by councils to deliver necessary children’s social care services.

Our team engaged with representatives from several councils across England through interviews and workshops to explore best practice and challenges in the production of sufficiency statements and to gather key insights on the development of a nationwide framework. We then combined existing data sources and data collected through a survey with councils to create a nationwide database on children’s placements. Finally, we developed a bespoke IT solution allowing us to create a detailed, individualised draft sufficiency statement for each council incorporating both national and council-level data.

Our framework for consistent monitoring of key trends across councils leads to an improved understanding of the breadth of the sector and provides actionable recommendations for future development.

➥ Download our Sufficiency Statement template here.

A Landscape Analysis of Childcare in Iraq

Alma Economics was commissioned to conduct a landscape analysis of the demand and supply of childcare services in Iraq.

Our study focused on childcare services catering for children up to 4 years of age and consisted of five components: (1) a mapping of childcare services, (2) a more in-depth supply assessment of childcare services, (3) a demand assessment of childcare services, (4) an analysis of operational costs, and (5) a review of relevant legislation.

Leading the research design, our team reviewed the primary data collection tools provided and tailored these to the cultural, socioeconomic, and legislative context of Iraq.

The project informed changes to childcare legislation, as well as the design of a childcare model that supports female employment and enhances early childhood development.