Alma Economics was commissioned by the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care to provide economic analysis to support the Review team to reform children’s social care (CSC) in England.
In the first phase of the project, we estimated the annual expenditure on CSC and the cost of adverse outcomes for children in need (CIN). To estimate the annual expenditure on CSC, we collated data on expenditure on services provided by local authorities to CIN as well as preventative services provided to the wider population. We used regression coefficients from the literature that account for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics to calculate the increased probability of children in need experiencing adverse outcomes. The adverse outcomes considered include educational outcomes, labour market outcomes, mental and physical health, criminal behaviour, and homelessness. The social cost of the adverse outcomes was estimated by exploring the impact of these outcomes on wellbeing, productivity losses, and expenditure on public services.
In the second phase of the project, we estimated the cost and impact on society of the policy recommendations developed by the Review team. We developed a comprehensive set of models estimating the impact of each recommendation on public finances and produced a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis reflecting costs and benefits to society. We designed our models in a flexible manner to allow us to test the impact of different policy parameters and states of the world to inform the work of the Review.
Read more about our work here.
➥ The independent review of children’s social care – final report
