Fake reviews research — Department for Business and Trade

We were commissioned by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) to carry out a project to examine the prevalence of fake reviews on e-commerce platforms widely used in the UK, the impact of fake reviews on consumer decision-making, and the potential effectiveness of a non-regulatory intervention in negating such an effect.

In order to determine prevalence of fake reviews, we drew on market share and online traffic data to develop a basket of goods from 11 online marketplaces, used web-scraping technology to build an anonymised dataset of reviews and applied machine learning techniques to spot fake reviews. Subsequently, to assess the impact of fake reviews and the effectiveness of a non-regulatory intervention, we created and launched an online shopping experiment among nearly 5000 UK adults. Through the experiment, we were able to gain an in-depth understanding of how a consumer shops online through tracking and analysing behaviour across the platform

Through our research, we found that at least 10% of all product reviews on third-party e-commerce platforms are likely to be fake. Consumers are more susceptible to being misled by well-written fake reviews when purchasing products where reviews play a more prominent role in consumer decisions (such as consumer electronics or higher-priced products). This highlights the importance of taking steps to reduce the prevalence of online fake product reviews.

The executive summary and full report can be found here.

Technical review of methods for missing data — Office for National Statistics

Missing data is a common challenge in research when using administrative or survey data. If data missingness is not properly addressed, it can lead to invalid estimates and misleading analysis, impacting decision making.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) asked Alma Economics to conduct a technical review of the literature on the methods that can be used to deal with missing data. Our team carried out a Rapid Evidence Assessment aimed at identifying the most prevalent causes of missing data, the main consequences, and the methods that can be applied to address these gaps for administrative and other non-survey data. Our report discusses the main benefits and drawbacks of each method, including their suitability for different types of datasets and causes of missingness.

We also developed an interactive Evidence Map, synthesising and presenting all the evidence collected. Finally, we developed a Python example code to illustrate how different methods can be applied under different scenarios of missing data.

Our research is particularly relevant for the ONS population and migration statistics transformation programme, aiming to make greater use of administrative data for more frequent and timely outputs.

➥ Read our report here.

The Mediterranean Growth Initiative

The Mediterranean Growth Initiative (MGI) aims to reframe the debate on the Mediterranean region through data and analysis. In 2016, we published the inaugural MGI Report, a data-driven assessment of political, economic and social progress in the countries of the Mediterranean.

In 2017, we developed and launched MGI.online, a fully interactive, public resource platform. Still ongoing, MGI.online provides direct and user-friendly access to data, forecasts, and analysis covering the markets of the Mediterranean. MGI.online is aimed at investors, policymakers, and researchers, as well as anyone who wants to gain an in-depth understanding of the region and its future.

Be sure to visit the site regularly for the latest data releases, our forecasts of key indicators, and to keep up with the latest developments from around the Mediterranean.

➥ Visit MGI.online or follow the MGI Twitter account.

Drip Pricing Research — Department for Business and Trade

We were commissioned by the Department for Business and Trade to assess the prevalence of drip pricing among online sellers in the UK and to estimate the harm that the practice may cause consumers.

We manually collected and analysed data from 525 online providers in four sectors. One good or service was purchased from each provider, and we collected detailed information about the checkout process and any charges involved. Furthermore, we calculated the number of providers that utilise the most harmful types of fees and estimated the additional cost to consumers through an economic model, to understand how UK consumers are impacted by the practice.

We found that drip pricing is common across online providers, although the specific characteristics of the dripped fees vary across sectors. It is also common for providers to utilise dripped fees that meet at least one criterion of harm. Our economic model showed that the practice causes UK consumers to spend an additional £595 million to £3.5 billion online each year. These findings demonstrate that greater scrutiny of drip pricing is needed in the UK to protect consumers.

➥ Find out more here.

Developing a tourist accommodation registration scheme in England: Analysis of the call for evidence — Department for Culture, Media and Sport

The Department for Culture, Media and Sport commissioned Alma Economics to analyse responses to a call for evidence to develop a fuller understanding of the current short-term and holiday lets market and the potential impact of a range of possible policy options. As part of this project, we reviewed over 3,500 responses from councils, local residents, short-term rental hosts and service companies, owners/employees of tourism accommodation businesses, tourism representative bodies, and destination management organisations.

We carried out quantitative segmentation analysis by stakeholder type and region to understand how different respondents perceived the benefits and challenges of short-term lets across England, as different communities’ experiences with this activity were likely to vary significantly. In addition, we developed an indicative estimate of the total number of short-term lets across England based on data provided by organisational respondents, and we reviewed key themes and perspectives raised by respondents in their answers to open-ended questions.

Our work helped bring together views from the various sector stakeholders and the public to help the government better understand changes in the short-term letting market over time, the benefits and challenges for communities, and the impact of potential policy responses. The responses and our analysis provided a foundation for a subsequent public consultation on specific regulatory options, and the development of evidence-based policies.

➥ Find more on the call for evidence here.

UK financial services exports to the US — Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office

Alma Economics was commissioned by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office to undertake market research into the export of UK financial services to the US. The primary focus of this research was to gain a largely qualitative understanding of the nature of services that UK-resident financial institutions provide to US-resident firms and consumers.

As part of our approach, we conducted semi-structured phone interviews with key firms – including banks, insurance companies, and asset managers – that deliver services to US-resident clients. The findings of this research fed into the wider policy process of the UK Embassy in Washington, DC.

Harmful Online Choice Architecture – Department for Business and Trade

We were commissioned by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) to carry out research into the prevalence and impacts of the use of default options on e-commerce websites and apps, which could potentially be causing harm to consumers.

We first conducted a prevalence study by reviewing consumer journeys on 558 of the most popular e-commerce websites and mobile applications in the UK. The aim was to understand the frequency with which default options are used. This study also identified sub-categories of default options depending on their location in the user journey, format, and sector.

To assess the impact of potentially harmful defaults, we then created and launched an online shopping experiment among 6,000 UK adults. Through the experiment, we gained an in-depth understanding of how different types of default options can affect user behaviour. A follow-up survey was used to gain qualitative insights into users’ experiences, thoughts, and beliefs about defaults.

Among our key findings was that 49% of sampled websites and apps had defaults, with those in the retail sector most likely to feature them. The prevalence study suggested that a majority of default options currently in use are not harmful to consumers, as they often promote the cheapest option available. However, the results from the online experiment show that the use of defaults can potentially increase the likelihood of consumers choosing more expensive options by 60% to 70%. Older adults, in particular, are more susceptible to having their decisions affected.

These results highlight the importance of facilitating consumer-centric innovation in which online retailers use defaults when it benefits consumers, with particular care taken to protect more vulnerable consumer groups.

An econometric analysis of postal delivery pricing in Scotland — Scottish Government

As part of its efforts to reduce unjust delivery practices in remote and rural areas, the Scottish Government commissioned Alma Economics to help determine discrepancies in postal charges in Scotland.

To address this question, our team developed an econometric model to predict postal charges based on geographic and parcel characteristics. A second econometric model then included the probability of refusal of delivery, after controlling for geographic and package characteristics. We further employed descriptive statistics to corroborate the findings from the econometric analysis.

Aside from the quantitative analysis, this work also involved a qualitative component, with our team undertaking an extensive stakeholder consultation. We conducted semi-structured interviews with postal operators, retailers, business associations, organisations, MPs, and MSPs which provided us with insights into delivery pricing and practices.

On the basis of this research, our development team created a Parcel Delivery Map and Interactive Data Hub, an online web application to improve transparency in delivery prices across Scotland. The tool allowed individuals and businesses to benchmark delivery prices paid against Scotland-wide averages, track pricing discrepancies across postcodes and find additional research and resources to explore unfair delivery pricing.

Based on the quantitative findings and the stakeholder consultations our report concluded with policy recommendations and suggestions for further research.

➥ Read our report here.

A needs analysis and predictive model of social welfare information and advice services in Wales — Welsh Government

Advice services provide people with free and impartial advice on issues they face. They play a pivotal role in empowering individuals to make informed decisions, ensuring they are aware of their rights and connecting them with vital resources.

Alma Economics was commissioned by the Welsh Government to estimate current and future levels of social welfare information and advice need in Wales. Our analysis looked at five different categories of advice need in each local authority: Welfare Benefits, Debt, Consumer and Finance, Housing and Neighbour, and Employment. The purpose of our work was to inform Welsh Government policy around advice services, including future discussions of funding.

Our team created a panel of estimates of historical advice need by local authority, year, and category of advice using data from Understanding Society. We then carried out regression analysis to explore the links between macroeconomic variables and advice need. Finally, we built a model to estimate future levels of advice need using forecasts of macroeconomic data, and we performed scenario analysis to understand how future developments might impact the levels of need.

➥ Our report is available here.

Youth, Mobility and Employability in the Mediterranean — Centre for Mediterranean Integration/Mediterranean Growth Initiative

The Centre for Mediterranean Integration (CMI) and the Mediterranean Growth Initiative (MGI) developed a strategy to inform decision-makers and investors on critical issues affecting the nations of the Mediterranean and to provide an in-depth understanding of the region and its potential.

In this context, the CMI asked Alma Economics to collect and analyse a wide range of indicators concerning important areas, including population and labour markets, education, migration, and international trade.

In the first phase of the project, we collected information on 18 countries in the Mediterranean from various sources. In the second phase, we prepared a report with a concise analysis of trends and emerging issues across European, North African and Eastern Mediterranean countries.

➥ The report can be found here.

Measuring Scotland’s Performance as a Leading Fair Work Nation

Established in 2015, the Fair Work Convention is an independent body with a remit to advise Scottish Ministers and promote Fair Work in Scotland. It developed a Fair Work Measurement Framework to track progress in Scotland against the five dimensions of Fair Work (effective voice, security, respect, opportunity and fulfilment).

The Fair Work Convention commissioned Alma Economics to carry out independent research to track Scotland’s progress in this area. To complete this research, we (i) updated the Fair Work Measurement Framework with the latest available data, (ii) conducted a wide review of key data sources to address evidence gaps, (iii) developed a new International Fair Work Nation Framework and benchmarked Scotland’s performance on a list of critical indicators against a group of comparator countries that share similar characteristics to Scotland, and (iv) carried out a rapid literature review to explore success factors in countries that demonstrate leading performance in Fair Work.

Our research helped pinpoint areas where Scotland has made progress and areas where more ambitious steps need to be taken. Our report also highlights a set of policies followed by leading Fair Work countries which would warrant future research in the Scottish context.

➥ Our final report is available here.

Creating a vision for the Oxford-Cambridge Arc: Analysis of consultation responses

The Department for Levelling Up, Communities and Housing (DLUHC) commissioned our team to analyse responses to a consultation seeking views on a vision for the Oxford-Cambridge Arc Spatial Framework. This consultation also included a review of the scoping stage of the Sustainability Appraisal of the framework.

As part of this project, we reviewed nearly 6,000 responses, carrying out quantitative segmentation analysis to understand how answers differed across respondent types as well as qualitative thematic analysis to determine key insights and perspectives raised in open-ended questions.

Our work helped bring together the views of local residents, businesses, government bodies, and other organisations on their vision for the future growth of the Oxford-Cambridge Arc.

➥ Find more on the consultation here.

Systematic Country Diagnostic: China’s Next Transformation — World Bank

An Alma Economics team coordinated the creation of the World Bank’s “China’s Next Transformation” report, a systematic country diagnostic (SCD) covering recent and future trends. An SCD is a type of report produced by the World Bank for partner countries, determining how they can reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity, as well as the challenges that stand in the way of those goals.

To provide insight and recommendations on issues pertinent to socioeconomic changes in China, the World Bank engaged experts to offer analysis on economic growth, poverty, inequality, the environment, and trade. Each section also described the existing policy context and the World Bank’s recommendations for reform priorities.

The report served as a reference point for client consultations on priorities for World Bank Group country engagement.

Turkey Financial Services Scoping Study

Alma Economics carried out an economic appraisal to assist in the design and development of a Prosperity Fund Turkey financial services programme to support inclusive growth and reduce poverty.

As part of this work, we set out detailed impact chains mapping the pathways through which the programme could generate impacts on financial development – measured by the growth of financial assets, financial inclusion, the alleviation of poverty, and economic growth in Turkey. We designed a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework to monetise these impacts for Turkey, as well as others for the UK economy.

Our CBA framework evaluated different programme options (including a multi-sector financial services programme targeting barriers across key areas of interest and a more limited offer dealing with selected barriers) and compared them with a “do nothing” scenario.

Our analysis fed into the development of a robust evidence base on the benefits of the different options for key areas, including poverty reduction, financial inclusion and access, the development of capital markets, and the FinTech ecosystem.

Analysis of Global Value Chains

On behalf of an international development bank, Alma Economics conducted a macroeconomic and industry sector analysis in several lower-income countries in Africa and Southeast Asia. This project was conducted on a country-by-country basis. Starting in the Maldives, we carried out an analysis of the Fisheries, Tourism and ICT sectors, conducting the same analysis in three benchmark countries (Iceland, Mauritius and Seychelles).

We also researched the impact of Covid-19 and prospects for the post-pandemic recovery in Indonesia (with a focus on agriculture and pharmaceuticals) and Guinea (with a focus on agriculture and mining). This included producing pre-pandemic and post-pandemic forecasts for GDP growth, Gross Value Added growth, employment, exports, and investment, in addition to analysing the recent past and nowcasting the current position. These forecasts were based on a mix of structural models and traditional statistical techniques such as ARIMA models.

Our research informed specific policy recommendations to take advantage of growth opportunities, expand these countries’ footprint in global markets and strengthen linkages throughout the value chain.

Economic impact of non-tax revenue in Saudi Arabia

Our team carried out a macroeconomic analysis for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which aimed to estimate the total impact of Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs (MOMRA) fees on GDP. In particular, we sought to know how much revenue these fees could raise as well as their impact on the wider economy.

The work included the modelling of several scenarios based on different multipliers and projections for revenue potential. We provided recommendations on the level and composition of the MOMRA fees to inform Saudi economic policy.