Exploring social housing allocation in Wales
Social housing provides affordable and secure housing for people in need of housing and is a key policy lever to help mitigate and prevent homelessness in Wales. As demand for affordable housing continues to grow, the Welsh Government has sought innovative approaches to improve allocation systems and support their vision of ending homelessness. Alma Economics was commissioned to contribute to this mission through an exploratory analysis of social housing allocation across Wales.
Building on our earlier feasibility study, this project combined the development and analysis of a novel dataset on social housing registers and allocation rates, as well as comprehensive qualitative research across local authorities, housing associations and key stakeholder organisations.
Research activities
We developed a novel data collection template that allowed local authorities to provide detailed information about social housing allocations by homelessness duty. This new dataset analysed using Python, uncovered patterns in allocation rates by geographic location and the differences between stock-holding and non-stock-holding local authorities. These insights highlight disparities and point to areas for improvement. Our team also engaged directly with all 22 local authorities, 17 registered social landlords, and 10 stakeholder organisations. Through in-depth interviews in English and Welsh, we explored allocation practices, barriers to housing access, and opportunities for reform. This collaborative effort brought to light the complexities of housing systems and underscored the value of partnerships in addressing local challenges.
Findings and impact
Through this research, we provided critical insights into:
Demand for social housing: Demand for social housing has increased 16% since 2022/23, leading to extending wait times and a greater reliance on temporary accommodation.
Allocation trends: Allocation rates vary between local authorities, with stock-holding local authorities being better equipped to house household with a homelessness duty than non-stock-holding local authorities.
Collaboration: The key role of partnerships between local authorities and housing associations to ensure fair and effective allocations.
Challenges and opportunities: From data gaps to resource constraints, we identified operational areas to improve who is accessing social housing.
A key finding was that the undersupply of social housing stock – particularly of one-bedroom and larger properties – has an enormous impact upon which groups of people are allocated social housing more quickly. In the words of one local authority official, “a lot of focus ends up on banding and the how the hierarchy of the banding looks, but what actually drives preference is how long it takes somebody to be re-housed, and that is driven by the availability of property”.
These findings were presented to Welsh Government stakeholders through an interim presentation and a detailed final report. These outputs help to inform and shape legislative and policy reforms, supporting more equitable allocation processes, and helping align local practices with the government’s rapid rehousing strategy and commitment to end homelessness. Our work demonstrates how rigorous research can drive meaningful change, ensuring that social housing systems not only meet the immediate needs of vulnerable populations but also contribute to long-term community resilience.
Find out more here.