Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme: Who is on furlough and at what cost?
This paper represents the first attempt to date to provide disaggregated estimates of the likely number of workers furloughed and the associated Exchequer cost. While we expect several key aspects of our results to prove robust and provide useful information to policy makers, there is substantial uncertainty and our estimates are subject to large revisions as new information is published.
We expect approximately one in three employees (31%) to be furloughed [estimate range: 23%-40%], at a cost to the Exchequer of £13.1 billion per month [£9.3bn-£17bn].
The less an employee earns, the more likely they are to be placed on furlough: we expect twice as many employees in the bottom 20% of the wage distribution to be furloughed compared to employees in the top 20%. Despite this, given the design of the scheme the highest proportion of the Exchequer cost is projected to go towards compensating furloughed employees at the upper-middle part of the wage distribution.
We expect accommodation & food services, wholesale & retail, and the arts, entertainment & recreation industries to be the most heavily affected, with more than 60% of all employees placed on furlough. In terms of occupations, sales and customer service occupations, skilled trades and elementary occupations will likely be the most heavily impacted, with professional, service and technical occupations at the other end of the scale. Variation between regions is projected to be relatively limited, with 36% of employees furloughed in the most affected region (West Midlands) compared to 30% in the least affected (London).