Alma Economics led a team of experts, including international and local staff, to estimate the tax gap and revenue potential for Ethiopia for each tax category at the federal and regional levels. Our team developed detailed forecasting models using a variety of approaches and within a flexible framework, enabling forecasting under different macroeconomic scenarios and assumptions.

We conducted social and operational research, including quantitative surveys, semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and process mapping to develop an in-depth understanding of the tax system in Ethiopia. During the process, the team worked closely with the Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority (ERCA) and the Ethiopian government to identify revenue bottlenecks.