On behalf of an international development bank, Alma Economics conducted a macroeconomic and industry sector analysis in several lower-income countries in Africa and Southeast Asia. This project was conducted on a country-by-country basis. Starting in the Maldives, we carried out an analysis of the Fisheries, Tourism and ICT sectors, conducting the same analysis in three benchmark countries (Iceland, Mauritius and Seychelles).

We also researched the impact of Covid-19 and prospects for the post-pandemic recovery in Indonesia (with a focus on agriculture and pharmaceuticals) and Guinea (with a focus on agriculture and mining). This included producing pre-pandemic and post-pandemic forecasts for GDP growth, Gross Value Added growth, employment, exports, and investment, in addition to analysing the recent past and nowcasting the current position. These forecasts were based on a mix of structural models and traditional statistical techniques such as ARIMA models.

Our research informed specific policy recommendations to take advantage of growth opportunities, expand these countries’ footprint in global markets and strengthen linkages throughout the value chain.