Economies and markets

An econometric analysis of postal delivery pricing in Scotland — Scottish Government

As part of its efforts to reduce unjust delivery practices in remote and rural areas, the Scottish Government commissioned Alma Economics to help determine discrepancies in postal charges in Scotland.

To address this question, our team developed an econometric model to predict postal charges based on geographic and parcel characteristics. A second econometric model then included the probability of refusal of delivery, after controlling for geographic and package characteristics. We further employed descriptive statistics to corroborate the findings from the econometric analysis.

Aside from the quantitative analysis, this work also involved a qualitative component, with our team undertaking an extensive stakeholder consultation. We conducted semi-structured interviews with postal operators, retailers, business associations, organisations, MPs, and MSPs which provided us with insights into delivery pricing and practices.

On the basis of this research, our development team created a Parcel Delivery Map and Interactive Data Hub, an online web application to improve transparency in delivery prices across Scotland. The tool allowed individuals and businesses to benchmark delivery prices paid against Scotland-wide averages, track pricing discrepancies across postcodes and find additional research and resources to explore unfair delivery pricing.

Based on the quantitative findings and the stakeholder consultations our report concluded with policy recommendations and suggestions for further research.

➥ Read our report here.