Public spending on Scotland's youngest children has been difficult to track across funding streams and governance levels. Without a consolidated picture of where money goes and who it reaches, policymakers face a significant evidence gap when making investment decisions about the early years. 

Alma Economics was commissioned by Nesta's Fairer Start mission to estimate public spending on children aged 0–4 in Scotland, ahead of the 2026 parliamentary cycle.

The analysis covered four spending categories: welfare, healthcare, children's services and social care, and early learning and childcare. Data sources included Households Below Average Income (HBAI) survey microdata, Scottish Health Service Cost Book activity data, Local Government Finance Statistics, and early learning and childcare registration data.

The analysis produced the first consolidated picture of early years spending in Scotland across funding streams and governance levels. 

Key findings for 2022/23: 

Total spending on children aged 0-4 reached £9,700 per child (£2.4bn in total).

Early learning and childcare is the largest spending area at £4,600 per child (£1.1bn in total), accounting for 48% of total early years spend.

Per-child spending held steady at around £5,300 in real terms between 2014/15 and 2019/20 before rising to £6,200 in 2022/2023.

Throughout the period, spending shifted in composition — away from welfare, which fell following significant cuts to benefits and tax credits during the austerity of the 2010s, before partially recovering with the introduction of the Scottish Child Payment, and towards early learning and childcare, driven by the expansion of funded childcare hours to 1,140 annually in 2021.

A replicable methodology was developed to support ongoing tracking of early years investment over time.

Read the full report here.

This research was conducted alongside a parallel analysis of early years spending in Wales, available here.